The first infected person on our shores emerged on 7 March. Now, two weeks later, and around a month since it became clear that the virus would be spreading across the world, we need to assess our government’s performance.
Let’s state at the outset that this is no easy task. It’s easy to be critical and far harder to have to take tough decisions. And let’s also remove all political discourse. This is a national issue. This is wartime. This requires a war effort.
After Joseph Muscat’s great fortune of not having to face one single exogenous crisis, here comes Robert Abela, with no ministerial experience, and after two months having to face Malta’s greatest post-WW2 crisis. So, we must recognize this and be fair with him.
The assessment can broadly be split between Health and the Economy.
Starting with Health, we feel an 8 on 10 would be a fair score. Chris Fearne and his team, led by the cool Charmaine Gauci (let’s prepare the Republic’s highest decoration for her), are doing a great job. Our healthcare workers are our true heroes, together with frontline workers in supermarkets and pharmacies, and in support functions like those keeping supplies going, those cleaning and disinfecting, etc.
The score would have been a 9 on 10, had it not been for Govt’s procrastination in closing our borders, particularly flights from Northern Italy. Had they listened to advice from local experts, like doctors, we may have saved the importation of quite a few infected persons. Not an easy call, admittedly, as the line between safety and freedom of movement isn’t one that is easily crossed in peacetime.
It is on the Economy, however, that the government is failing, by a poor 4 on 10. But the good news is that it’s still Term 1 assessment, and there’s ample opportunity to recover.
Here, government has so far failed the test. Ministers Silvio Schembri and Edward Scicluna are not up to the job. All the talk that Malta has the strongest economy in Europe, and so on, is either a sham, or the men in charge simply don’t get it.
The priority, surely, isn’t to balance the budget, but to get out of this with a nation that is prepared to rebuild, rather than one which is decimated and demoralized. What we need is to give every worker the peace of mind to make the right health choices, rather than have to expose himself or herself to danger because otherwise s/he’ll starve. Now, to achieve this, the topmost priority must clearly be to SAVE EXISTING JOBS, rather than provide a minimum wage safety net for those losing jobs. And, given the measly package offered thus far, how can Government estimate only 1,000 job losses?
If a small hotel has closed down, with no prospect of reopening before at least four months, and having say 100 staff, each earning the average wage of €2,000 per month, can the employer be reasonably expected to retain a payroll of €200,000 per month, plus all other fixed expenses, just because Government is contributing €32,000 per month? Isn’t it obvious that the hotel owner will have to let at least 90 of them go, costing the government €72,000 per month?
This talk of ‘they had it good for 7 years and now need to cough up’, is back to the politics of the 1980s. Economic reality is quite another thing, so let’s stop playing with workers’ livelihood. Let’s wait and see what losses State-owned Air Malta will be incurring, which taxpayers will have to bail out. It’s in the interests of the most vulnerable that Government should borrow, to keep jobs going.
And in the spirit of a joint wartime effort of burden-sharing, employees will even accept to take a temporary pay cut to salvage their jobs, and the jobs of their colleagues. Back to our hotelier example. If his staff agreed to take a 30% cut, bringing the average down to €1,400, and Government paid €900 to salvage each job, then it would cost Govt €90,000 per month, and the employer €50,000. This could be viable for a few months.
Government should pay more to salvage jobs than for payments in the event of redundancies. This is what the governments of Germany, France, Denmark, New Zealand, Cyprus and even bankrupt Greece are doing and on Friday, the UK, have also recognized. Britain’s Chancellor has made it clear that his government will do EVERYTHING necessary to save jobs by paying each 80% of salaries up to £2,500 a month. Can’t we have a similar undertaking? Or are our savings and our economic strength just empty boasts?
We are certain that in this time of national, and global, crisis, all the social partners, Government, employers and workers, are prepared to share the burden. No one expects Government not to run a deficit. Everyone expects Government to keep us safe, not just through first class medical care (buying more ventilators, and providing even more emergency hospital beds), but through the financial impetus that ensures that even the most vulnerable can make the right choices for the health and safety of their families. In a post-Coronavirus scenario, we need an economy that is still fairly robust and can bounce back, maybe with some further stimulus. If our businesses are moribund, it will only serve to prolong the misery for more than necessary and we will lose any competitive edge built up over recent years.
We’ll carry out another assessment in two weeks’ time. In the meantime, take courage Robert Abela, you clearly mean well. You have a strong Deputy who is doing a great job, but you need a stronger economic team. Take your own counsel from trustworthy business leaders, from experienced economists and redoubtable unionists. As in everything, time is of the essence. The end of the month is a watershed, for many reasons. We need a proper stimulus package before then, not the current one that compares so badly with most other countries.